The loss of Manbij, a northern Syrian town close to the border with Turkey, to Kurdish-Arab forces is a body blow to the Islamic State. Since 2014, when it captured the town, the IS had used Manbij as a critical supply link for goods and fighters to be smuggled in and out across the Turkish border. The group’s efforts to expand towards the south were thwarted in March by the Syrian national army, helped by Russian bombers, when they recaptured Palmyra. Well before that, the IS was evicted from the border towns Kobane and Tal Abyad by Kurdish rebels. After losing Manbij, the IS has now largely retreated to Raqqa and its surroundings in Syria. There were several factors at play in the victory of the Syrian Democratic Forces in Manbij. The most important was that Kurdish and Arab rebel forces came together and put up a joint front against the IS. If the Kurds alone had attacked the IS in Arab towns, it would have strengthened the ethnic sectarian narrative that pitches Sunni Arabs against the Kurdish minority. Also, the peace process in Syria, however fragile, allowed the rebel groups to turn their focus towards the IS. Finally, the United States played a constructive role in the battle for Manbij, as the Russians did in Palmyra. Despite opposition from its ally Turkey for helping the Kurds, the U.S. provided air cover to the rebels. This combination of aerial attacks by the U.S. and a ground offensive by the rebels broke the IS defence of the town.
The biggest, and toughest, battle in Syria is yet to come. The SDF have said that they would march towards Raqqa, the de facto capital of the ‘Caliphate’. Home to around 2,50,000 people, Raqqa has been under IS control since late 2013. But the IS could find it difficult to hold its own in the wake of a Manbij-type attack from all sides. Turkey, after the recent terror attacks, has tightened its border with Syria, making it difficult for IS forces to connect with the outside world. The loss of Manbij has choked their supply lines further. The group has suffered setbacks in Iraq too. It lost Fallujah in June this year and Ramadi in December 2015, and is facing the heat in Mosul from Iraqi troops and Iran-trained Shia militias. While all this suggests that the ‘Caliphate’ is being progressively weakened, its opponents should be careful not to provide the group further opportunities by triggering more chaos in Syria and Iraq. In Iraq, they should stay focussed on defeating the jihadists with the help of the army and Iran, while in Syria the fight against the IS and the efforts to reconcile the government of Bashar al-Assad and the non-jihadist rebels should go hand in hand.
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