Matters of peace and diplomacy in West Asia have hardly been coming up in news headlines of late. But the nuclear deal reached on July 14 between Iran and six world powers is a historic step forward that solves an over-a-decade-long stand-off between Iran and the West. It sets the stage for a radical realignment of equations in West Asia, and has the potential to transform the conflict-ridden region in the long term. The credit goes to U.S. President Barack Obama and his Iranian counterpart, President Hassan Rouhani, who put aside historical acrimony, sidelined the hardliners, took a pragmatic view of ties and pushed hard for a deal. As the details emerge, the agreement looks like a “win-win deal” for all sides. Under its terms, sanctions imposed by the U.S., the European Union and the UN would be lifted, in return for Iran agreeing to long-term curbs on its nuclear programme. All of Iran’s nuclear facilities would be allowed to continue operations. This provision will let the Iranian government sell the deal to its public, pointing out that its right to generate nuclear energy stays intact. Tehran has also agreed to a “snapback” mechanism, under which some sanctions could be reinstated after 65 days if it violated the deal. A UN weapons embargo would remain for five years and a ban on buying missile technology for eight years.
But the real potential of the deal lies in the fact that it removes the greatest obstacle for a rapprochement between Iran and the U.S. Though both sides have said the talks were related strictly to the nuclear programme and not other bilateral issues, the diplomatic warmth shown by these erstwhile enemies over the past few years is hardly lost on anyone. The changing geopolitical dynamics of West Asia have also played a major role in bringing the U.S. and Iran together. Both are cooperating in Iraq in the war against Islamic State. Iran, though hit hard by sanctions, is a major power in West Asia whose influence spans from Baghdad and Damascus to southern Lebanon. If the U.S.-Iran hostility could be transformed into cooperation, and Tehran is allowed to claim the economic and diplomatic status it deserves, that could have a positive impact on several conflicts in the region. That should be the obvious next step after the nuclear deal. But there are challenges, too: powerful sections, including the Republicans in the U.S., hardliners in Iran, and the Israelis and Saudis, remain steadfastly opposed to a U.S.-Iran rapprochement. The journey so far has not been easy. If Iran and the big powers continue to show the will and the commitment they have demonstrated during the talks, the goals of the deal will be achievable.
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