Ruling parties have an inherent advantage in by-elections. With no possibility of bringing about a change of government, voters in geographically circumscribed constituencies have no incentive to offend those in power or to encourage those in the Opposition. The results of the recent Assembly by-elections for six seats in five States were on expected lines. The surprises, if any, were limited to the margins of victory, and who came second. In Tamil Nadu, no one expected Chief Minister Jayalalithaa to lose in the R.K. Nagar constituency in Chennai. She was contesting for a seat in the current Assembly a second time, having forfeited her seat following her conviction in the disproportionate assets case. Although the stakes were high for Ms. Jayalalithaa, the major Opposition parties did not field candidates against her. Only the Communist Party of India, with no significant support base in the constituency, entered the fray. The record 88.43 per cent votes that she got was thus only a mild surprise. In Tripura, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) won both the seats, and the surprise was the performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party, which finished second, ahead of the Congress. As in West Bengal, the BJP is rapidly expanding its base in Tripura. If in West Bengal it is the CPI(M) that is yielding ground to the BJP, in Tripura it is the Congress that is seeing erosion in its support base. However, in Kerala, another State with a strong Left presence, the BJP failed to dislodge the CPI(M) from the second spot despite fielding former Union Minister O. Rajagopal. In Madhya Pradesh the BJP won the Garoth seat, but with a reduced margin. The Congress could do no more than claim this was a ‘moral defeat’ for the ruling party. But in Meghalaya, where it is in power, the party won the by-election in Chokpot.
If there is one running pattern in all these results, it is that the ruling party is always tough to beat. Over the last two decades and more, the Election Commission of India has done a lot to limit the advantages of incumbency in elections. The model code of conduct places restrictions on the government initiating welfare schemes and development projects in a constituency going to the polls. But voters know they would be rewarded later if they vote for the ruling party. However, there is no guarantee that the results in a by-election would hold in a general election. When voters sense an opportunity to throw out a ruling party in a general election, and not just embarrass it as in a by-election, they vote in a very different manner. While these by-elections are thus cause for some celebration for those in power in the respective States, they are by no means pointers to what could follow in a general election.
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